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Why India’s market keeps rising: Sensex, Nifty at 8-month highs as foreign money returns and oil cools
The benchmarks have gained about 10.5% in seven sessions; on Monday PSU banks pulled them up from steep early losses, while IT and metal stocks fell and fewer stocks rose than fell.
India's stock market has been climbing for weeks. The Sensex rose 107.25 points to 81,106.65 on Monday, and the Nifty 50 gained 58.25 points to 25,044.65, their highest closes since 27 February, HDFC Sky and Kotak Neo reported. The two indices have gained about 10.5% over seven straight sessions through Friday, HDFC Sky said, the longest winning streak this year.
Why it is rising, according to analysts
- Foreign money is coming back. Foreign portfolio investors have bought over $4.1 billion of Indian shares so far in November, their strongest monthly inflow since September 2024, HDFC Sky reported. Nation Path, citing Reuters, said they bought ₹45,961 crore of shares over five sessions the previous week.
- Oil is cooling. Brent crude fell as fears of escalation in the Iran conflict eased and US President Donald Trump indicated fresh military attacks were unlikely while talks go on, HDFC Sky said. Lower oil can help India's trade balance and inflation. Kotak Neo put Brent January futures at $97.51 a barrel after the sharpest weekly drop in over six years.
- Money is moving away from AI bets. Worries about profits from large AI investments sparked a sell-off in tech-heavy markets, which led some investors to rethink their emerging-market allocations, HDFC Sky reported. See BDT's report on the AI sell-off.
- Earnings. Nation Path reported stronger-than-expected September-quarter results, citing for example Divi's Laboratories, up 7.5% after a 64% jump in quarterly profit, and Tata Steel, up 2.1% after an 18% rise in operating profit.
What happened on Monday
The market swung between losses and gains before closing higher, helped by buying in banks, especially public sector lenders, HDFC Sky said. Nifty PSU Bank rose 3.7% and SBI gained 2.6%. Nifty IT was the weakest sector, down 1.2%, and Tata Steel, HCL Technologies and UltraTech Cement were among the biggest losers.
The caution
The rally was narrow: 2,316 NSE stocks fell and 1,922 rose, HDFC Sky said. Kotak Neo described the session as subdued compared with pre-Diwali days, and HDFC Sky noted mild profit-booking in the Diwali special session on Sunday, when the Sensex ended 0.04% lower at 80,999.40, according to Nation Path. The rise also depends on oil prices, the Iran conflict and foreign flows, all of which can change quickly.
Markets were shut on Tuesday for Diwali-Balipratipada and reopen on Wednesday.
This is a market report, not investment advice.
How we verified this
VerifiedClosing levels and changes (Sensex 81,106.65, +107.25; Nifty 25,044.65, +58.25) and the midcap, smallcap, Pharma and IT moves match in HDFC Sky and Kotak Neo. The reasons for the longer rally (easing crude, returning foreign buying, a shift away from AI-linked investments), the $4.1 billion FPI figure, sector and stock moves, market breadth and the analyst upgrades are from HDFC Sky alone and are attributed. Kotak Neo gives no specific cause for Monday’s gain, and its gainer and loser labels were inconsistent, so BDT used HDFC Sky’s stock list. Muhurat-session figures are from Nation Path. Markets were shut on 10 November; BDT did not have a 11 November opening report when this was written. These are market reports, not predictions.
